Investment theses under pressure

Know when the evidence has broken your thesis.

Write a Japanese equity thesis as testable claims, monitor the evidence that could invalidate it, and surface a review before conviction becomes inertia.

Try the fixture No sign-in · precomputed from the tested fixture

One product.

One decision.

Visible evidence.

Interactive proof

Reveal the verified fixture.

These exact theses and normalized quarters are evaluated by product.py.

Three-thesis portfolio fixture

Theses:
[
  {"id":"T-1","thesis":"Overseas revenue ratio keeps rising","metric":"overseas_ratio","rule":"two_consecutive_declines"},
  {"id":"T-2","thesis":"Operating margin stays above 12%","metric":"operating_margin","rule":"below:12"},
  {"id":"T-3","thesis":"Free cash flow remains positive","metric":"free_cash_flow","rule":"below:0"}
]

Quarterly evidence:
[
  {"quarter":"2025-Q3","overseas_ratio":42,"operating_margin":14.1,"free_cash_flow":820,"source":"fixtures/FY2025-Q3-results.md#page-12"},
  {"quarter":"2025-Q4","overseas_ratio":40,"operating_margin":13.8,"free_cash_flow":610,"source":"fixtures/FY2025-Q4-results.md#page-9"},
  {"quarter":"2026-Q1","overseas_ratio":37,"operating_margin":13.2,"free_cash_flow":440,"source":"fixtures/FY2026-Q1-results.md#page-11"}
]

The tested result is ready to inspect.

Reveal the expected decision generated by the product's deterministic acceptance fixture.

How it works

Small surface. Clear chain of proof.

Specify

Turn each investment belief into a claim with a measurable break condition.

Cite

Connect reported evidence to the exact document page used in the check.

Challenge

Sort broken theses first and state the exact evidence required to reverse each result.

✓ BROKEN-first ordering✓ Adjacent quarter validation✓ Page metric/value verification